Indonesia's Amman Mineral Copper Concentrate Exports Advance, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,889.5/mt overnight, fluctuated upward and touched a high of $10,919.5/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices gradually moved down to a low of $10,823/mt, fluctuated considerably and finally closed at $10,819/mt, down 0.67%, with trading volume reaching 16,000 lots and open interest reaching 324,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 87,430 yuan/mt overnight, fluctuated upward and touched a high of 87,410 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices gradually moved down and touched a low of 86,810/mt near the end of the session, finally closed at 86,990 yuan/mt, down 0.1%, with trading volume reaching 46,000 lots and open interest reaching 245,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 3, the Indonesian government agreed to grant PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk (Amman Mineral) a permit to export copper concentrates; the permit is still in the administrative approval stage. Indonesia banned raw ore exports from mid-2023 to promote the development of the domestic metal processing industry. Amman Mineral's smelter was damaged by a fire this year, and the government considered granting an export relief based on "force majeure." If the permit officially takes effect, it will inject new momentum into the company and the local economy and alleviate the tight global supply of copper concentrates.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 3, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract ranged from a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 5 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 86,660-87,020 yuan/mt. In early morning trading, SHFE copper briefly rose to 87,220 yuan/mt before starting to fall, dropped to 86,730 yuan/mt near 11 a.m., then stopped falling and rebounded. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between a contango of 30 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was nearly 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, as copper prices fell to near 87,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchasing sentiment improved compared to the previous period, but due to the noticeable inventory buildup in Shanghai, downstream buyers are expected to continue to bargain down purchasing prices, and spot premiums for SHFE copper are unlikely to improve.

(2) Guangdong: On November 3, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 10 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110-70 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 90 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,935 yuan/mt, down 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,855 yuan/mt, down 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory increased, suppliers actively sold cargo, and spot premiums declined.

(3) Imported copper: On November 3, warrant prices were $30-40/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40-62/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$20/mt to -$6/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late October and early November.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on November 3, the futures closing price was 86,730 yuan/mt, down 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average spot premiums/discounts were -5 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained unchanged WoW. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,300-78,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,321 yuan/mt, down 645 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,515 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices rebounded in the afternoon, but many secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that their procurement quotations remained almost unchanged, believing the rebound was temporary and maintaining a bearish outlook for the future. Trading of recycled copper raw materials was sluggish in the afternoon.

(5) Inventory: On October 31, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 1,025 mt to 133,600 mt; on November 3, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 356 mt to 40,066 mt.

Price: On the macro front, recent hawkish signals from several US Fed officials, emphasizing that the inflation fight is not yet complete and expressing caution about interest rate cuts, reduced market expectations for a December rate cut, boosting the US dollar index and putting pressure on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply saw concentrated arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes. Demand was suppressed by high copper prices, resulting in overall weak performance. Inventory-wise, as of Monday, November 3, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased by 17,500 mt WoW to 201,000 mt. Overall, macro pressure and loose fundamentals jointly weighed on copper prices, and copper prices are expected to continue facing upward resistance today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]